Why last year plus inflation is not a staffing plan
This year's payroll shows what you spent, not what you needed. If you were short-staffed in the summer and got through it with overtime and last-minute fill-ins, that strain does not show up anywhere in the figures. The other way round, a department can carry one permanent person too many for years without anyone noticing. A good plan therefore does not start with costs but with demand: how many shifts will each department need per month next year? Only then do you work out what that costs.
Step 1: estimate demand per month
Use the best information you have now, even if it is not complete yet:
• Occupancy per month: the forecast from revenue management, or this year's figures adjusted for what you already know.
• Groups and events: confirmed and likely conferences, weddings and group tours.
• F&B: expected breakfast guests, restaurant covers and banquets.
• Changes: new opening hours, a renovation, extra rooms or an outlet that closes.
Do not plan week by week; that comes later in the rota. For the budget, a picture per month is enough.
Step 2: translate demand into shifts per department
Not every department moves with occupancy. For each department, distinguish between:
• Fixed staffing: shifts that are always needed, however quiet it is. Think of a reception that is open 24 hours, the night shift or maintenance.
• Variable staffing: shifts that move with the number of guests, such as housekeeping, breakfast and service.
For the variable part, use your own standards, for example the number of rooms per room attendant per shift or the number of covers per server. That gives you a number of shifts per department and per month instead of an amount of money.
Step 3: convert shifts into FTE
A full-time employee does not work five shifts a week for 52 weeks. Subtract what is not worked in practice:
• Annual leave: at least four weeks of paid leave a year in the EU, more in many countries and collective agreements.
• Public holidays and time off in lieu: depending on your country and agreement.
• Absence: use your own rate from this year, not a national average.
• Training and meetings: hours that are paid but not spent on the floor.
You often end up at roughly 210 to 220 effective shifts per full-time employee per year. Divide the number of shifts you need by that figure and you know how many FTE you really need. That is almost always more than when you only look at the rota.
Step 4: split core team and flexible cover
Do not hire permanent staff for the peak, and not for the trough either. A practical split:
• Core team: enough permanent people to run the quietest months yourself, including the fixed staffing from step 2.
• Your own flex: part-timers who want extra hours in busy months, and seasonal staff you already know.
• External cover: for peaks that are too short or too unpredictable to recruit for yourself, such as a large conference or a summer with high occupancy.
Write down in the plan which part of the peak you will cover from which source. Then in May you already know who you will call in August.
Step 5: plan turnover and hiring over time
Even if the team is complete now, people will leave next year. Look at turnover per department over the last twelve months and assume it will stay roughly the same. Then put the following in a hiring calendar:
• Replacing turnover: how many people per department you expect to replace, and when.
• Seasonal hiring: start eight to twelve weeks before someone needs to start, earlier for key roles.
• Onboarding time: new people are not fully productive in their first weeks. Include that overlap in hours and costs.
• Hiring costs: job ads, agency fees and managers' time for interviews.
Step 6: leave room for the unexpected
A plan that adds up exactly is under pressure by February. Set aside a small buffer for what you cannot predict: a colleague who is out for months, a group that books at the last minute or a vacancy that stays open longer than expected. Show that buffer as a separate line, so it does not quietly disappear into overtime.
Step 7: make the plan a working document
A staffing plan that disappears into a folder helps nobody. Each month, compare planned and actual shifts, overtime and external cover per department. Update the plan every quarter with the latest forecast. Discuss it with your department heads: they are the first to see where it pinches, and they stick more closely to a plan they helped to build.
Worked example: housekeeping in an 80-room hotel
Say you expect an average occupancy of 72 percent next year. That is an average of 58 occupied rooms a day. With a standard of 15 rooms per shift, an example only, because your own standard depends on room type and the number of departures, you need almost four shifts a day, just over 1,400 a year. At 215 effective shifts per full-time employee, that is about 6.5 FTE.
But that demand is not spread evenly. In January, at 50 percent occupancy, you need about 19 shifts a week; in August, at 90 percent, more than 33. A core team that runs the quiet months, plus around 14 extra shifts a week at the peak through extra hours, seasonal staff and external cover, is then more realistic than 6.5 FTE on permanent contracts.
Checklist for general managers, HR and financial controllers
• Does the plan start with expected demand per month, not with this year's budget?
• Has each department been split into fixed and variable staffing?
• Have shifts been converted into FTE, net of leave, absence and training?
• Is it agreed which part of the peak is covered by your own flex and which part externally?
• Are expected turnover, seasonal hiring and onboarding time in a hiring calendar?
• Is there a separate buffer for the unexpected?
• Is the plan compared with reality every month and updated every quarter?
When AXXAZ Hospitality helps
AXXAZ Hospitality supplies reliable hospitality staff to hotels across Europe. If you already know where next year's peaks are, we can agree in advance on experienced people in housekeeping, reception, service or the kitchen, so you do not have to absorb those peaks with permanent headcount or overtime. It all starts with a clear staffing brief. Get in touch.
In one sentence
Start with demand per month, convert it into shifts and FTE, split core team and flex, plan turnover and hiring over time and compare the plan with reality every month.
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